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Posted on August 25 2022

Immigration forecast to double Canada’s population

By  Editor
Updated January 09 2024

Highlights of Canada Immigration Forecast

  • Due to the continuous flow of immigrants, Canada’s population is estimated to be double its current population, i.e., 74 million by 2068.
  • Based on the current needs, Ottawa plans to invite 431,645 PRs this year, 447,055 by 2023, and 451,000 PRs by the year 2024.
  • Immigration is one of the response strategies for the growing Canadian population and this is going to remain for coming decades.

Canada’s population to be doubled

Canada’s community is estimated to be doubled to 74 million people by 2068, as there is a continuous increase in the flow of immigrants from worldwide, states Canadian Statistics.

The statistical and demographic services agency reports predict the population forecast as follows with respect to years based on various scenarios.

By the year Estimation of Canada’s population
2021 38.2 million
2043 42.9 million – 52.5 million
2068 74 million

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In a medium-growth scenario, the Canadian population might reach 47.8 million people by 2043, and by 2068, it might reach 56.5 million.

Based on the medium growth strategy approach states another 9.6 million people might move to Canada by 2043 which can be estimated as a 457,143 constant increase per year for the next 21 years. This steady increase is estimated as the current level of immigration to Canada.

Canada Immigration levels plan for 2022-2024

Using the federal immigration levels plan for 2022-2024, Ottawa has big plans to target and invite Permanent Residents.

Number of Permanent Residents Year
431,645 2022
447,055 2023
451,000 2024

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As long as the current trend does not change significantly, the population growth in Canada would not be coming from Canadian families having more children.

In the coming years, the natural growth (birth minus deaths) is anticipated to reduce due to the low fertility rates and aging of the population. During the year 2020, the ratio of the number of children and women in Canada is recorded as historically low at 1:4.

In the medium growth scenario, this natural growth continues to decline in the next years, and can even become negative in a transient period between 2049 and 2058.

Immigration plays a major role to be accountable for increasing Canada’s population growth in the next decades.

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The primary key to Canada’s population growth: Immigration

Immigration is one of the significant reasons if there has to be a continuous increase in Canada’s population in the near future based on the various growth scenarios. This step is going to persist in the coming decades.

The federal agency notices the average age of the immigrants to Canada in 2022 as a strategy to resolve the labor shortage, which is an ongoing problem of shortage in young people, states the Population Projections for Canada, Provinces, and Territories, 2021 to 2068.

According to the Statistics of Canada reports, immigration could not amplify the youth population. Hence Canada has to continue depending high on immigration levels to renew its population as there is a low and decreasing fertility rate.

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Canada Immigration – What to expect in 2022?

In order to fill in the available jobs and increase the population, Canada is being dependent on immigration. With this, based on the medium growth scenario, the average age of Canadian citizens is expected as below.

Year Average age of a Canadian citizen
2021 41.7 years
2043 44.1 years
2068 45.1 years

Canadians continue to age

The percentage of senior citizens aged 65 or more is estimated to be as follows.

Year Percentage of Senior aged 65 or older
2021 18.5 percent
2043 23.1
2068 25.9

Based on the medium growth scenario, the number of citizens aged 85 is estimated as follows

Year Senior citizens aged 85 or older
2021 871,000
2068 3.2 million

Using immigration as a strategy, Canada is been growing its population twice the speed of any other G7 country from 2016 to 2021.

This pace decreased during 2020 due to the pandemic, but it raised again in the year 2021. From January to March 2022, this rise was the highest compared to all the first quarters since 1990, states Canadian Statistics.

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To handle the future consequences of labor shortages which may affect certain sectors of the economy, some are expecting an increase in population. Whereas the others strain on having the infrastructure, or the availability of housing facilities, particularly across Canadian cities.

Amid the COVID-19 pandemic, most of the immigrants moved from one province to another. This resulted in the growth of population for British Columbia, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, and Quebec.

As there was no clue about how long does the pandemic exist, hence this resulted in demographic shifts in the country, based on Statistics Canada.

*Do you have a dream to migrate to Canada? Talk to World’s no.1 Y-Axis Canada overseas migration consultant.

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